Experts argue that these fractured relations between
While marking Israel’s 75th anniversary, Ursula von der Leyen offered solidarity. „Europe and Israel are bound to be friends and allies,” the European Commission president said on April 23, 2023. This friendship once went far beyond basic diplomacy. Israel competed in European sports tournaments, participated in Eurovision, shared intelligence with European governments, and integrated its defense industry into European supply chains. These connections still exist, but they have turned into flashpoints following the systematic destruction of Gaza by Israel, a military campaign that has claimed the lives of at least 74,000 Palestinians.
European nations have withdrawn from Eurovision due to Israel's participation. European football players have refused to compete against the Israeli national team. Warm declarations of friendship have transformed into harsh condemnations. Ireland and Spain have led the criticism against Israel's oppression of the Palestinians. At the recent UN General Assembly, Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin stated that Israel's actions in Gaza „will shame the world,”while Spain's Pedro Sanchez spoke of „unequivocal condemnation of the genocide that Netanyahu continues to commit in Gaza.”In a striking demonstration of how much has changed in just three years, the United Kingdom—whose Balfour Declaration laid the groundwork for Israel's creation—has imposed an embargo on goods from illegal settlements. Its foreign secretary also accused Israeli settlers of ethnic cleansing.
In one weekend, a group of settlers attacked European diplomats and officials from Belgium, France, and Poland who were visiting a Palestinian olive harvest near the West Bank village of Taybeh. This incident, occurring just a day after settlers assaulted an American journalist north of Ramallah, sparked widespread international condemnation.
Experts argue that these fractured relations between Europe and Israel may remain damaged permanently. Israel is heading toward elections on October 27, a vote currently too close to call. Will the outcome influence Europe-Israel relations? Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House, warned that if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returns with a far-right coalition, „certain things will become irreversible. The damage caused by this government is profound.”Nicola Perugini, an associate professor of international relations at the University of Edinburgh, cautioned that re-electing the leader, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC), will perpetuate the suffering of the population in Gaza under inescapable conditions. A coalition involving more liberal parties might slow down settlement expansion. However, having a prime minister wanted by the ICC at the helm will likely result in a continuous deterioration of ties.
Ruling elites are trying to align with the public
Replacing Netanyahu does not necessarily mean breaking away from the policies fueling European criticism, experts noted. For instance, Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief and leader of the centrist Yashar party seen as Netanyahu's main rival, has opposed Palestinian statehood. An annual public opinion poll conducted last year by the Mitvim Institute in Israel showed that 67 percent of Israelis viewed the European Union as an adversary, compared to just 14 percent who viewed it as a friend.
Mekelberg sees potential for a different relationship under a more liberal government. „The conversation with Europe would be more rational,”he said, though he warned that public image will not change overnight. More humanitarian aid could reach Palestinians, and the pace of settlement expansion might slow down. The controversial E1 settlement plan could even be abandoned. However, Julie M Norman, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, noted that these steps might still prove insufficient for European governments to fully reconcile. Instead, Europe will demand concrete moves toward Palestinian statehood and an end to the occupation. „But we are not seeing that under the current government, and probably not under the next one either,”she stated.
At the start of Israel's war against Gaza, Western leaders largely supported the Israeli military campaign. However, sustained pressure from groups demanding an end to the Gaza offensive and West Bank violence—ranging from human rights organizations, international courts, trade unions, and professional bodies to millions of protesters worldwide—has forced governments to take action. „Now the governing elites in several countries are trying to align with the public,”said Neve Gordon, an Israeli professor of human rights law at Queen Mary University of London, adding that the pro-Palestine movement has successfully shifted the baseline stance of governments.
Pew Research Center surveys in the UK showed that the proportion of people viewing Israel negatively rose from 61 to 69 percent between the spring of 2025 and this spring, jumping from 66 to 75 percent in Italy and from 64 to 73 percent in Germany, traditionally one of Israel's strongest allies. Nathalie Tocci, an Italian political scientist, linked this pressure directly to the recognition of a Palestinian state, moves toward suspending the EU-Israel association agreement, and the embargo on settlement imports. „If anything has had an impact on European policies toward Israel, it is precisely the wave of protests over the last few years,”she said.
Norman at Chatham House noted that European states have shifted from targeted measures, such as sanctioning far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, toward broader structural steps.